2019.03.19 Zhang Wei 浏览次数:
On March 5th, Nio (NIO.NYSE), the leader of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) start-ups, announced a net loss of $9.3B in its annual report. The report also predicted far weaker growth of sales in the future than had been expected, and its factory-building plans are put on ice. Later, its shares plunged 31% amid a 7-day losing streak and its market value evaporated by $4.21B. The number of NEV start-ups have long exceeded 100, while most of them are going to face an existential crisis in 2019. NEV as well as autonomous driving is absolutely a promising direction for investments. But there are no NEV firms worth of an investment so far.
On March 5th, Nio (NIO.NYSE), the leader of China’s new energy vehicle (NEV) start-ups, announced a net loss of $9.3B in its annual report. The report also predicted far weaker growth of sales in the future than had been expected, and its factory-building plans are put on ice. Later, its shares plunged 31% amid a 7-day losing streak and its market value evaporated by $4.21B. The number of NEV start-ups have long exceeded 100, while most of them are going to face an existential crisis in 2019. NEV as well as autonomous driving is absolutely a promising direction for investments. But there are no NEV firms worth of an investment so far.
China’s “car-making spree” has been launched around 2015. As policies have further skewed toward the auto industry, it has again become an investment trend with the capital playing a part in it. The auto industry is both capital and technology-intensive and its finance market size has been probably valued at ¥220.18Bn. With China government withdrawing financial subsidies for NEVs, the industry competition is about to turn policy-driven to market-oriented. As the tide ebbs, these NEV start-ups need to compete against traditional manufacturers with the quality of their products on their own. The success of these new forces depends entirely on their products and brand recognition.
To speak plainly, the recent crop of carmakers in such numbers over a short period isn’t about taking up a fad. Most companies are just coveting the heavily subsidized NEV market with opportunities for a quick profit. However, phasing out subsidies will speed up the reshuffling of the industry this year.
It can be seen that it’s the whole vehicle manufacturers who sit atop the “pyramid” because they have the best brand recognition. The industry only provides limited space for vehicle manufacturers, so we reckon that most vehicle star-ups will go bankrupt this year. Another ending for them is to be acquired by larger whole vehicle makers or taken over by real estate developers who are eager to funnel their money from virtual economy into real economy but act in a foolish way.
That being said, there are still many chances that can be sought from the industrial chain in the fledging NEV market. Apart from whole vehicle manufacturers, there are also auto parts suppliers that are major players in the auto industry like Robert Bosch (BOSCHLTD. NS) , Aisin Seiki (ASEKY). Do Chinese firms have the chance to optimize the NEV industrial chain resources and will there be competitive upstream or downstream companies in Chinese auto industry? These are the things we’re going to wait and see.
Above are excerpts from Zhang Wei’s article Why None of China’s NEV Start-ups Worth Investing In. He sharply criticized Chinese NEV start-ups’ pseudo-innovations and NEV subsidies “cheat”. He noted that zero to one innovation requires long-term accumulation with large capital expenditures, which is hard to be replicated and overtaken in a few years. But he didn’t deny the opportunities in NEV industrial chain because he believed that NEV and autonomous driving are the important trends in the future. Chinese firms still stand a chance to develop into major forces in upstream and downstream sectors by optimizing NEV industrial chain resources. The editorial was originally published on CoStone Capital WeChat. Access to the full article in Chinese: https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/VE6g9GWx2xpVS_NMJOrtdw
Rewritten by Lu Ying, Edited by Li Yunzhen
过去一年，牛市重启，科技领航。
正如我在2024年10月所说的那样，“924”的行情并不是一个反弹，而是一个反转，自那以后，中国资本市场经历了一个从低估到价值回归的过程。
当上证指数来到10年最高点，“易中天”一年翻几倍，“寒王”市值一度突破6000亿，其他科技股也动辄百倍PE、百亿估值，有人贪婪，有人恐惧，还有人问我：科技股存在估值泡沫吗？
我说，这是一个时代的饥渴与焦虑，在资本市场中的投射。如果你理解这一点，你就不会对当前科技投资的热潮感到困惑。
投资与宏观经济无关，但确与地缘政治有关。
中美关系决定了未来几十年的投资，地缘政治极大构建了我们这个时代的饥渴与焦虑，深刻重塑了我们的投资行为。
中国的饥渴与焦虑是什么？第四次工业革命的大幕已然开启，第三次工业革命的短板却还未补齐，时不我待！
所以当有人疑惑，为什么国产算力芯片企业，技术难以望英伟达之项背，却有这么高的估值？为什么英伟达的PE只有50倍，“中国版英伟达”却有300倍？
我说，逻辑刚好反了，正是因为短期内追不上英伟达，这些企业才被赋予了更高的战略性定价，而且差距越大，战略价值越高。越得不到越饥渴，越追不上越焦虑，如果有一天，我们的算力芯片完全突破了，估值反倒会下来。
中国最美的自然风景在哪里？我认为很大一部分分布在横断山脉及其周边，梅里雪山、玉龙雪山、贡嘎山、四姑娘山、九寨沟等等都在这里。巨大的落差，结构性断裂，形成了壮丽的风景。
硬科技投资就是这样，技术代差、能力断点、体系缺口——难度的跃迁，带来了估值的跃迁，成功之后也将带来回报的跃迁。
这一逻辑，除了算力芯片领域，在存储芯片、商业航天等中国与外国差距比较大的领域，也都有所体现。
正因如此，从2016年开始，基石资本就果断将投资重点聚焦到硬科技、新兴产业和生命科学与健康三个领域——在这个语境下，“硬科技”特指那些与美国有代差的重要产业。
得益于这样的前瞻性，基石资本很早就在半导体、人工智能和机器人等关键领域实现了全产业链布局。
展望未来，科技进步与产业升级是无尽的前沿，硬科技产业差距的缩小亦无法一蹴而就，技术创新和国产替代的双重机会之窗才刚刚打开，任重道远，未来可期。
作为投资机构，基石资本将继续投身于每个时代的饥渴与焦虑，顺着时代的张力前行，向最难、也最重要的方向延伸。