2019.04.30 Source: Shenzhen Special Zone Daily 浏览次数:
During the CoStone Capital Annual Conference on April 28th, Chairman Zhang Wei stated that China's upcoming Science and Technology Innovation Board (STIB) will serve as another great practice of China's strategy of asymmetric competition in the financial market. This strategy is similar to China's industrial policies from 2000 to 2010 when the Chinese government selectively supported domestic telecommunications operators and equipment manufacturers, such as Huawei, in their competition against companies like Cisco. It was in this context that Huawei emerged in China.
Zhang Wei believes that both the development of a nation and its enterprises have standard answers. Regarding competition between nations, the economic strength and vitality of the United States, for instance, are closely related to its highly developed system of direct financing. For example, the number of effective intellectual property rights owned by the United States is similar to that of the European Union, but the sales revenue of high-tech industries in the United States is four times greater than that of the EU. The difference lies in the fact that the financing system driven by capital markets greatly facilitates innovation and entrepreneurship throughout society, whereas a financing system dominated by banks has the opposite effect. Behind this difference lies the monumental role played by NASDAQ. China is currently launching the STIB, and the timing is opportune. The STIB will be the engine for China's next round of innovation in the economy.
"Asymmetric competition refers to the competition in a market featuring asymmetrical limitations and incentives, whereby companies with vastly different strengths compete in unequal or different ways. This competition seeks to answer an increasingly important and urgent question: should small and disadvantaged local companies, operating under the background of economic globalization, market openness, and the trend of monopolistic concentration in various industries, strive to grow? And if so, how?" said Zhang Wei.
The STIB will be the engine for China's next round of innovation economy.
As an investor who has been actively involved in the venture capital industry for the past 18 years, Zhang Wei has deep insight into the environment for the development of Chinese technology enterprises. From the perspective of the relationship between the financial market and innovation, China primarily relies on indirect financing through bank loans, with a low proportion of direct financing. Direct financing accounts for about 20% in China, while in the United States, it accounts for approximately 70% to 80%. Thus, China's level of direct financing lags far behind that of the United States.
Innovation is highly correlated with direct financing, with the equity market being the most crucial component of direct financing. Professor Tian Xuan from Tsinghua University has found through research that the development of the equity market can promote innovation for enterprises with a high degree of external financing reliance, while the development of the credit market hinders innovation. For high-tech intensive industries, the development of the equity market can foster innovation for enterprises, while the credit market has the opposite effect. The conclusion is that there is a positive correlation between innovative patents and the development of the equity market, and a negative correlation with the development of the credit market.
China's level of direct financing accounts for about 20%, significantly lower than the 70%-80% in the United States. Bank loans remain the primary means of financing.
The STIB of the Shanghai Stock Exchange focuses on supporting industries such as the new generation of information technology, high-end equipment, new materials, new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, and biomedicine. It aims to promote the deep integration of the internet, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing industry. Currently, apart from a few areas such as the internet, artificial intelligence, big data, and new energy batteries, where the development stage between China and the United States is relatively close, the majority of the technology sectors supported by the STIB are traditional tech fields in which China lags far behind the West. In these traditional hard-tech sectors with huge gaps between China and the West, it has been quite difficult to:
- Obtain loan support from banks;
- List domestically due to a lack of scale and profitability, leading to a lack of active investment from most institutions;
- Gain recognition from overseas capital markets when listing abroad due to a vast disparity in size compared to mature market competitors, resulting in no valuation premium or liquidity and making it nearly impossible to truly raise funds.
With the introduction of the STIB, it will:
- Directly expand the investment boundaries and tolerance of arbitrage institutions in the market, greatly enhancing the direct financing capability for original and innovative technology companies, thereby accelerating the development of original hard-tech in China;
- Effectively guide domestic institutions, especially RMB funds, to actively invest in smaller and more dynamic SMEs;
- The registration-based system reform contributes to increasing the financing scale and improving the support efficiency for SMEs in the capital market;
- Require enterprises to enhance their own original technological capabilities.
The STIB and the registration-based system'slaunch will help alleviate the enormous financial pressure faced by domestic technology companies in their early stages of development and extend the survival period for these enterprises.
NASDAQ's assistance in helping the United States win the US-Japan trade war
Looking at the competition between the United States and Japan further reinforces this point. In the 1970s and 1980s, when it seemed that Japan's economy would surpass that of the United States, the key factor that allowed the United States to surpass Japan was the economic transformation brought about by the development of internet technology. NASDAQ played a crucial role in this transformation by channeling funds into the technology industry, while Japan made serious mistakes in its financial industry policies. Following the Plaza Accord, the burst of the real estate bubble, and the double blow of the trade conflict, Japan's economy was completely knocked down.
In comparison, NASDAQ actively supported small businesses when it was established, and it mutually supported Silicon Valley. This solidified the United States' significant advantage in the field of technology in the new era. On one hand, NASDAQ directed capital into high-tech sectors. Starting from the 1980s, significant breakthroughs were achieved in genetic engineering, the pharmaceutical industry, biotechnology, computers, and telecommunications, among other fields. The rapid development of scientific and technological advancements presented a ripe opportunity, which the agile venture capital industry in the United States captured, investing in high-tech sectors. NASDAQ provided the institutional framework for exiting from venture capital investments. Additionally, NASDAQ offered financial support to small and medium-sized enterprises, effectively encouraging technological innovations.
On the other hand, high technology became a new source of economic growth and promoted the upgrading of traditional industries. The high-tech industry in the United States propelled the country into its longest period of continuous economic growth since World War II. High technology facilitated industrial upgrading, leading not only to increasing output value year after year but also to the informationization and high-tech transformation of traditional industries. It became a new growth point of the US economy and a pillar industry. Consequently, the US economic growth relied on an information industry foundation. The formation and development of the information industry played a critical role in the prosperity and stability of the US economy, acting as the fundamental driving force behind the "new economic structure."
NASDAQ-listed companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon are enormously wealthy, with market values exceeding twice the GDP of Israel.
Actually, the competition between the United States and Japan provides further evidence. In the 1970s and 1980s, as Japan's economy seemed poised to surpass that of the United States, the game-changer that allowed the United States to pull ahead was the economic transformation brought about by the development of internet technology. In this regard, the Nasdaq played a crucial role by channeling funds into the technology industry. On the other hand, Japan suffered severe policy mistakes in the financial industry. Following the Plaza Accord, Japan faced the dual blow of a burst real estate bubble and trade conflicts, which ultimately dealt a devastating blow to its economy.
过去一年，牛市重启，科技领航。
正如我在2024年10月所说的那样，“924”的行情并不是一个反弹，而是一个反转，自那以后，中国资本市场经历了一个从低估到价值回归的过程。
当上证指数来到10年最高点，“易中天”一年翻几倍，“寒王”市值一度突破6000亿，其他科技股也动辄百倍PE、百亿估值，有人贪婪，有人恐惧，还有人问我：科技股存在估值泡沫吗？
我说，这是一个时代的饥渴与焦虑，在资本市场中的投射。如果你理解这一点，你就不会对当前科技投资的热潮感到困惑。
投资与宏观经济无关，但确与地缘政治有关。
中美关系决定了未来几十年的投资，地缘政治极大构建了我们这个时代的饥渴与焦虑，深刻重塑了我们的投资行为。
中国的饥渴与焦虑是什么？第四次工业革命的大幕已然开启，第三次工业革命的短板却还未补齐，时不我待！
所以当有人疑惑，为什么国产算力芯片企业，技术难以望英伟达之项背，却有这么高的估值？为什么英伟达的PE只有50倍，“中国版英伟达”却有300倍？
我说，逻辑刚好反了，正是因为短期内追不上英伟达，这些企业才被赋予了更高的战略性定价，而且差距越大，战略价值越高。越得不到越饥渴，越追不上越焦虑，如果有一天，我们的算力芯片完全突破了，估值反倒会下来。
中国最美的自然风景在哪里？我认为很大一部分分布在横断山脉及其周边，梅里雪山、玉龙雪山、贡嘎山、四姑娘山、九寨沟等等都在这里。巨大的落差，结构性断裂，形成了壮丽的风景。
硬科技投资就是这样，技术代差、能力断点、体系缺口——难度的跃迁，带来了估值的跃迁，成功之后也将带来回报的跃迁。
这一逻辑，除了算力芯片领域，在存储芯片、商业航天等中国与外国差距比较大的领域，也都有所体现。
正因如此，从2016年开始，基石资本就果断将投资重点聚焦到硬科技、新兴产业和生命科学与健康三个领域——在这个语境下，“硬科技”特指那些与美国有代差的重要产业。
得益于这样的前瞻性，基石资本很早就在半导体、人工智能和机器人等关键领域实现了全产业链布局。
展望未来，科技进步与产业升级是无尽的前沿，硬科技产业差距的缩小亦无法一蹴而就，技术创新和国产替代的双重机会之窗才刚刚打开，任重道远，未来可期。
作为投资机构，基石资本将继续投身于每个时代的饥渴与焦虑，顺着时代的张力前行，向最难、也最重要的方向延伸。